Politics with Paul

Approachable, nonpartisan, and nonideological analysis of various political topics by nonpartisan political analyst, writer, researcher, and speaker Paul Rader.

Most Common Mistakes and Misunderstandings about Campaigns w/ Alex Patton | Politics with Paul #74

E75 • Jan 6, 2026 • 74 mins

Elections are complicated and difficult, which makes for plenty of mistakes made on the campaign trail from newbies and veterans alike. But it's not just the actual campaigns where mistakes and misunderstandings happen - it occurs with how elections are analyzed and covered, too. Campaigners, candidates, pollsters, media, academics, and citizens all have different perspectives and interests, leading to shortcomings and exacerbating the missteps about campaigning. In today's episode, Alex Patton sits down with me to discuss these mistakes that are made by campaigns and by those seeking to understand campaigns. Alex draws on his long career in political consulting and survey research to spotlight these common errors, including some that he made early on in his career. Whether you're new to the political game, seeking to enter it, or seasoned with experience, his insights will benefit anyone.

Key Points

Campaigns often make the mistake of overestimating their ability to persuade voters who are firmly aligned with the opposing party.
Polls are frequently misunderstood by campaigns and media alike, especially regarding the inherent uncertainty and margin of error in polling data.
Special elections and off-year elections are not reliable predictors of future election outcomes due to their unique voter turnout dynamics and context-specific factors.

Alex's links:

Ozean Media: https://ozeanmedia.com/
Ozean Media blog: https://ozeanmedia.com/insights-blog/

My links:

Download my FREE 5-day educational email course on how to fight polarization: https://detoxifyamericanpolitics.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulrader352/
Buy my book on Amazon (ebook and paperback): https://www.amazon.com/Why-Independents-Rarely-Win-Elections-ebook/dp/B09K8PYM5J/
My website: https://paulrader.org/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PaulRaderWrites
Medium: https://paulrader-42650.medium.com/
Email: [email protected]

Speakers

Paul Rader

Host • 42%

Paul Rader

Host • 58%

Chapters

0:00	Introduction to Campaign Mistakes, Alex Patton
1:42	Why Alex Got Into Political Campaigning
6:17	Early Mistakes Made in Alex's Political Consulting Career
11:28	Common Mistakes Made by Political Consultants in General
15:30	Federal Elections Research Isn't Very Applicable to State/Local Elections
21:46	Are Voters Persuadable but Campaigners Use the Wrong Tactics?
29:15	Mistakes Pollsters Make in Creating Polls
36:42	There is Inherently a Little Uncertainty in Polling
42:08	Be Careful About Using 2025 Elections to Predict 2026
49:06	We Need to Accept Some Uncertainty and Nuance in Politics
51:28	Mistakes Made by Academics in Analyzing Campaigns
1:01:56	Final Thoughts on Mistakes by Campaigners, Those Who Analyze Campaigns
1:06:06	Random Question: Fun Sporting Events You've Been to
1:12:18	Closing and Our Media

Transcript

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