Politics with Paul #24: Is There a 2nd Term Curse on US Presidencies?
It has sometimes been remarked upon a president’s reelection that there is a “2nd term curse,” where presidential records and legacies take a hit due to lesser success than the 1st term. But are 2nd terms really less successful than 1st terms? What factors can we look at to examine the theory’s validity? What do other political observers have to say about the idea? Today’s episode covers these questions and more, including how Donald Trump (currently) compares to previous two-term presidents? Today’s Random Fact of the Day: Donald Trump and Grover Cleveland are the two presidents to serve nonconsecutive terms, but did you know that there a bunch of other prominent offices in the US that have seen people serve nonconsecutive terms?
Key Points
- The 2nd Term Curse suggests presidents perform worse in their second terms, but whether this is real is debated by political observers.
- Data such as presidential approval ratings, seats gained or lost by the president's party, and scandals help shed some light on the validity of the 2nd Term Curse, but they are arguably inconclusive.
- Potential reasons for the possibility of a 2nd Term Curse include tiredness of a long-serving president, missteps by the president, and economic downturns.
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Transcript
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