Political with Paul Podcast #8 - How Do Election Forecasters Make Their Predictions?
The coverage of predictions of election results ramp up the closer we get to elections. Election forecasters, both individual and organizational, have their own formulas for how they rate the likelihood of a Democrat or a Republican of winning a given contest. Today's episode dives into a variety of the factors these forecasters use to make their prediction, including election history, polling, and other elections happening at the same time. Today's random question: If you could have an exotic animal as a pet that normally is not legally allowed, what would you choose and why?
Key Points
- There are a bunch of individual and organizational election forecasters with their own formulas for how they rate the likelihood of either the Democratic or the Republican Party winning a given election.
- Exact formulas for election predictions aren't necessarily made public, but they rely on a wide array of factors including historical election results, polling, demographic trends, and concurrent elections.
- There are some misunderstandings about how polling exactly works, including what margins of error really mean and how polls are sampled.
Purchase my book on Amazon (ebook and paperback): https://www.amazon.com/Why-Independents-Rarely-Win-Elections-ebook/dp/B09K8PYM5J/ My website: https://paulrader.org/ Like and follow my Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/PaulRaderWrites Follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paulrader352/ Read and follow my Medium blog: https://paulrader-42650.medium.com/ Email me: [email protected] Matchmaker FM profile for booking me on your podcast: https://www.matchmaker.fm/podcast-guest/paul-rader-329e65
Chapters
| 0:00 | |
| 1:37 | |
| 7:08 | |
| 8:33 | |
| 11:32 | |
| 14:02 | |
| 16:35 | |
| 21:20 | |
| 23:16 | |
| 25:08 | |
| 30:05 | |
| 32:09 | |
| 34:57 |
Transcript
Loading transcript...